Falling Cliff

March 23, 2014 Leave a comment

Falling Cliff

1In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.
2The same was in the beginning with God.
3All things were made by him; and without him was not any thing made that was made.
4In him was life; and the life was the light of men.
5And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.
6There was a man sent from God, whose name was John.
7The same came for a witness, to bear witness of the Light, that all men through him might believe.
8He was not that Light, but was sent to bear witness of that Light.
9That was the true Light, which lighteth every man that cometh into the world.
10He was in the world, and the world was made by him, and the world knew him not.
11He came unto his own, and his own received him not.
12But as many as received him, to them gave he power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name:
13Which were born, not of blood, nor of the will of the flesh, nor of the will of man, but of God.
14And the Word was made flesh, and dwelt among us, (and we beheld his glory, the glory as of the only begotten of the Father,) full of grace and truth.
15John bare witness of him, and cried, saying, This was he of whom I spake, He that cometh after me is preferred before me: for he was before me.
16And of his fulness have all we received, and grace for grace.
17For the law was given by Moses, but grace and truth came by Jesus Christ.
18No man hath seen God at any time; the only begotten Son, which is in the bosom of the Father, he hath declared him.
19And this is the record of John, when the Jews sent priests and Levites from Jerusalem to ask him, Who art thou?
20And he confessed, and denied not; but confessed, I am not the Christ.
21And they asked him, What then? Art thou Elias? And he saith, I am not. Art thou that prophet? And he answered, No.
22Then said they unto him, Who art thou? that we may give an answer to them that sent us. What sayest thou of thyself?
23He said, I am the voice of one crying in the wilderness, Make straight the way of the Lord, as said the prophet Esaias.
24And they which were sent were of the Pharisees.
25And they asked him, and said unto him, Why baptizest thou then, if thou be not that Christ, nor Elias, neither that prophet?
26John answered them, saying, I baptize with water: but there standeth one among you, whom ye know not;
27He it is, who coming after me is preferred before me, whose shoe’s latchet I am not worthy to unloose.
28These things were done in Bethabara beyond Jordan, where John was baptizing.
29The next day John seeth Jesus coming unto him, and saith, Behold the Lamb of God, which taketh away the sin of the world.
30This is he of whom I said, After me cometh a man which is preferred before me: for he was before me.
31And I knew him not: but that he should be made manifest to Israel, therefore am I come baptizing with water.
32And John bare record, saying, I saw the Spirit descending from heaven like a dove, and it abode upon him.
33And I knew him not: but he that sent me to baptize with water, the same said unto me, Upon whom thou shalt see the Spirit descending, and remaining on him, the same is he which baptizeth with the Holy Ghost.
34And I saw, and bare record that this is the Son of God.
35Again the next day after John stood, and two of his disciples;
36And looking upon Jesus as he walked, he saith, Behold the Lamb of God!
37And the two disciples heard him speak, and they followed Jesus.
38Then Jesus turned, and saw them following, and saith unto them, What seek ye? They said unto him, Rabbi, (which is to say, being interpreted, Master,) where dwellest thou?

Categories: Uncategorized

My Apartment

March 23, 2014 Leave a comment

My Apartment

1In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.
2The same was in the beginning with God.
3All things were made by him; and without him was not any thing made that was made.
4In him was life; and the life was the light of men.
5And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.
6There was a man sent from God, whose name was John.
7The same came for a witness, to bear witness of the Light, that all men through him might believe.
8He was not that Light, but was sent to bear witness of that Light.
9That was the true Light, which lighteth every man that cometh into the world.
10He was in the world, and the world was made by him, and the world knew him not.
11He came unto his own, and his own received him not.
12But as many as received him, to them gave he power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name:
13Which were born, not of blood, nor of the will of the flesh, nor of the will of man, but of God.
14And the Word was made flesh, and dwelt among us, (and we beheld his glory, the glory as of the only begotten of the Father,) full of grace and truth.
15John bare witness of him, and cried, saying, This was he of whom I spake, He that cometh after me is preferred before me: for he was before me.
16And of his fulness have all we received, and grace for grace.
17For the law was given by Moses, but grace and truth came by Jesus Christ.
18No man hath seen God at any time; the only begotten Son, which is in the bosom of the Father, he hath declared him.
19And this is the record of John, when the Jews sent priests and Levites from Jerusalem to ask him, Who art thou?
20And he confessed, and denied not; but confessed, I am not the Christ.
21And they asked him, What then? Art thou Elias? And he saith, I am not. Art thou that prophet? And he answered, No.
22Then said they unto him, Who art thou? that we may give an answer to them that sent us. What sayest thou of thyself?
23He said, I am the voice of one crying in the wilderness, Make straight the way of the Lord, as said the prophet Esaias.
24And they which were sent were of the Pharisees.
25And they asked him, and said unto him, Why baptizest thou then, if thou be not that Christ, nor Elias, neither that prophet?
26John answered them, saying, I baptize with water: but there standeth one among you, whom ye know not;
27He it is, who coming after me is preferred before me, whose shoe’s latchet I am not worthy to unloose.
28These things were done in Bethabara beyond Jordan, where John was baptizing.
29The next day John seeth Jesus coming unto him, and saith, Behold the Lamb of God, which taketh away the sin of the world.
30This is he of whom I said, After me cometh a man which is preferred before me: for he was before me.
31And I knew him not: but that he should be made manifest to Israel, therefore am I come baptizing with water.
32And John bare record, saying, I saw the Spirit descending from heaven like a dove, and it abode upon him.
33And I knew him not: but he that sent me to baptize with water, the same said unto me, Upon whom thou shalt see the Spirit descending, and remaining on him, the same is he which baptizeth with the Holy Ghost.
34And I saw, and bare record that this is the Son of God.
35Again the next day after John stood, and two of his disciples;
36And looking upon Jesus as he walked, he saith, Behold the Lamb of God!
37And the two disciples heard him speak, and they followed Jesus.
38Then Jesus turned, and saw them following, and saith unto them, What seek ye? They said unto him, Rabbi, (which is to say, being interpreted, Master,) where dwellest thou?

Categories: Uncategorized

Hanging out

March 23, 2014 Leave a comment

Hanging out

Avoiding Boulders while scouting ice climbing location

Categories: Uncategorized

Financials

February 17, 2011 Leave a comment

Yesterday trading presented good opportunity to execute and hold solid trade ideas throughout the morning session.  While the markets price action was not a screaming long it did support good long trade ideas once it hit monthly highs.  The financials in particular showed good strength in the markets yesterday, which was led by Goldman Sach (GS) making new monthly highs and JP Morgan JPM) hitting new 52 week highs (however brief).  I also notice strength in the insurance part of the financial sector (which is also continuing in today’s trading) with HIG and PRU with both stocks testing yearly highs. 

Looking at JPM price action from yesterday we can see some points of entry that emerged from solid scenario development.  As you can see on the daily and hourly charts the stock was a solid long, above all moving averages with a solid bias to the upside.  Coming strong right out of the open within the first 5 min closing above yesterdays range, this was the first entry you could have executed.  While this is an aggressive entry it was justified because of the strength in the higher time frames.

  Now the second entry (which is the entry most traders probably identified) was near the 15 min ORB.  Looking at the charts we get a nice ten minute pause with a great risk/reward (with a close below 47.50 as your out).  The key to the success of this trade was holding it through the markets pullback.  If you setup and stuck with the proper rick parameters you would have no reason to get out of the trade, if you would look at the 15min chart we can see that price action did not create a lower low all morning. 

Looking at the daily and hourly chart for today’s price action we see a low volume pause, an inside day continuing from yesterday afternoon sideway action.  From this information we can anticipate a continuation to the long side in the upcoming days with price action making new highs.  We do have some resistance on the weekly charts around the 48.20 level so I would not get aggressive until we and comfortably hold above this level. 

Categories: Uncategorized

Markets and the XLE

February 14, 2011 Leave a comment

Today the markets continued it move higher in a relatively lack luster way compared to Fridays action when the turmoil in Egypt soften with Hosni Mubarak stepping down as president.  The strong buying in the markets continues as two of the major three indexes make new 52 week highs.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the index today that did not make new highs with the SPY and NASADQ, which could have prompted a sell divergence in the markets, but was not realized in today’s price action.  Showing continued strength in the markets. 

The energy sector performed very well today as many of the Keystone Trading Groups components watched in the XLE (energy ETF) made 52-week highs.   Exxon-Mobil (XOM) had an explosive day right out of the morning trading and continued to push higher throughout the day on strong volume.  While smart trading cautioned traders to be less aggressive until we broke the $84.00 two week resistance level, once above price action continued higher another dollar with little resistance.  Valero Energy (VLO) was another stock that had a strong morning and once above Fridays highs took off another .75 cents in the longs flavor. 

Another stock that looks interesting and shows promise for a continued move higher is Baker Hughes (BHI).  While the stock did not breakout like some of its counterparts today, this two week low volume pause looks ripe for the stock to push higher in a big way.  It looks similar to XOM on the daily charts.  As XOM had an huge move in the beginning of the month followed by two week low volume pause that resulted in an explosive move higher in today’s price action.  I will be looking BHI and other components in this sector to continue higher in the upcoming weeks.  

Categories: Uncategorized

Very Stock Specific Market

December 15, 2010 Leave a comment

This morning trading was a bit difficult as we had a big sell off during yesterdays closed, which cause this morning price action (while relatively strong) to present difficult opportunities due to the lack of follow through broad base (and lack of ability to get out of yesterdays trading range) for both long and short trading ideas. I’m betting most traders who were able to book profits, did so into momentum and were very diligent in determining risk-only trade compare to trade ideas that had good probability for follow through.

Another element that created a difficult trading environment was the internals not presenting a strong bias in either direction. Even though the VIX did trade lower(bullish) most of the morning it didn’t translate to increased follow through as the morning session continued forward.

The afternoon provide good opportunity to the short side as the Euro continued to break down taking the SPY with it. While the euro and the markets did sell off you had to be in the right stocks at the right time to take advantage to the move lower. Being prepared to short already weak stocks presented the best opportunity for follow through in this stock specific market.

Looking forward it is extremely important to have trade ideas for both side of the market and imperative that you focus your attention on the best stocks that have the highest probability for follow through and good risk/reward that warrant taking the trade. It is easy to get chopped to pieces in this market as the moves are not broad base but very sector and stock specific.

Intra-day movement (VIX)

December 9, 2010 Leave a comment

Today’s markets seemed like a case of deja-vu from Tuesdays price action as we open near 52 week highs and sold off for the remainder of the morning, finding some support at yesterday highs. And similar to Tuesday trading it was difficult to initiate long with a high probability of follow through but we could not short aggressively because of the overall strength in the markets.

In the afternoon we were able to hold support at Wednesday’s high and started to make a run back to test session highs near the 124.00 level. Which provide some interesting long opportunities in stock that have been strong throughout day, such as BBT, MET and COST (from Keystone stock list).

As far as trading goes the VIX did present good clues as to markets direction. As the VIX gaped lower on the open (coinciding with the market opening at its highs) we subsequently pushed higher, but could not continue lower as the VIX tested and held its first 15 min support area giving legs to the continued uptrend (bearish) through out the the morning session.

As we look at the afternoon session the VIX had the same type of move, just on the long side. As the afternoon continued the VIX formed lower and lower swing highs giving way to the afternoon rally. Even though the SPY and the VIX opened and closed near the same level, paying attention to the directional movement of the VIX could have resulted in taking advantage of some intra-day movement in this very stock specific market.

A few things I did notice in the markets today was the relative strength in the financial sector and weaker price action from the technology (specifically semi-conductors SMH) and the energy sector, which could be the beginning of leading sector rotation (but we need more time to see if this is the case). If the financials with tech and energy could start to push higher consistently I think we will have no problem getting above the 124.00 resistance we have in the SPY.

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