Even when you are trading on an intra-day basis you still need to do your homework in regards to the stocks you are trading, things like: knowing levels of support and resistance on multiple time frames, understanding the direction and flow of the overall markets so you are trading with the wind on your back, and you also need to understand what sectors you are involved in or want to get involved in.

As the Thanksgiving season and Christmas season kicks in – the retail sector has really come into play. Stocks like JCP M SKS GPS BBY WMT have all seen increases in volumes as traders and investors take positions on the seasonal sales expectations. For the most part it felt like most analysts were expecting a better Black Friday than what seems to have taken place. The good thing about this time of the year is that we will be getting plenty of data from this sector well into the start of 2010. We have Cyber Monday data to deal with as well as the pre-Christmas sales. Same store sales, inventories, $spent per customer are all variables that will be batted around on television as analyst try to predict how earnings will do. For us intra day traders, you need to be aware of these variables because they will impact the flow of these stocks. It’s also important to recognize that volatility should increase in this sector and it will therefore be a good sector to be trading.

The Thanksgiving Day news from Dubai World also set the credit markets on fire as risk premiums were recalibrated higher over a very short period of time. By Monday it seems that Dubai World was being more transparent with the restructuring of a portion of its debt – which seems to have calm down the markets. The financial stocks, which had been beaten up on Friday, rebounded today on this news. Once again, as intra day traders you need to be aware of the variables that are moving your sector and as a consequence your stocks. So financial will also be a sector worth keeping an eye on as we come to the end of the year.

Lastly with the US$ making moves it is worth looking at commodities, including energy stocks, as they will be on the move with any change in flow in the currency markets.

Suffice is to say that you need to add another dimension to your homework so you can take better advantage of any shift in order flow in the stocks you are trading.

1 day and counting till Black Friday! Retailers like Walmart (WMT) , Kohls (KSS), Sears (SHLD) , Target(TGT) and Amazon (AMZN) wait all year long just for this one day.  It is the day that they are supposed to turn profitable on the year, hence the term “Black Friday”.

With the economy still struggling and in the process of exiting one of the worst recessions in U.S history, many of the retailers have started slashing prices weeks ago and some even in the summer months.  Walmart (WMT) anounced that it will match prices from any one of it’s competitiors. This has fired up the competition, causing Amazon (AMZN) to lower its prices. An estimated 134 million people will shop this Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

This all comes on the heels of last year being one of the worst year’s on record. Will they or will they not come? And if they come will they spend? Well, based on the stock prices of these companies, Wall Street thinks ‘YES”. Walmart (WMT) has rocketed upwards in the month of November. Trading from a low of $49.52 to today’s current price of $55.

Based on this move, sales better not disappoint or we are going to see alot of selling pressure enter into the stock. We believe that Walmart is the leader of the pack and if anyone was to beat expectations they would be the ones to do it. That being said, we would prefer to enter the long side after a pullback of some sort.

I know one thing, you will not see me on line to enter the store at 3am. I will happily wait a few more weeks when the crowds subside.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

As equity traders, we normally don’t need to be extremely aware of the US $ and it’s relationship with other currency; however, for the last couple of weeks we have seen an increase in the correlation between the $ and the equity markets. A great part of this is the result of the strength and weight of the commodity stocks, which have always had a correlation with the currency markets.

This morning’s large move up in the markets was caused by the sudden weakness in the US$, when the US$ started to strengthen during the late morning, we saw the markets start coming off its highs. We also saw once again a sell divergence develop intra day today as only the Dow Jones made a 52week high.

As intraday traders you need to be aware of what factors/sectors/or markets are moving stocks, so you can be ready and anticipate the next move.

Now that we are done with the earning season, maybe the macro economic numbers will be the only indicators that move this equity market one way or another.

When I first started learning to daytrade, I used to get evry upset with myself over almost every mistake that I made. Once I realized what a negative approach that was, I identified the one and only time that I would allow myself to be really upset with me.

The time that I allow myself to be upset with me is when I do not follow my plan which is kin to loosing discipline.

This month (Nov.)  has been a very difficult month to trade in my opinion. To date there has been really only one trending day. Now there were two additional days that I will identify as quasi-trending days as they did not meet the typical criteria for a nice, smooth trend in OF or they started out in a definate trend, but then transformed into a range bound day.

For Debbie, months like this are very difficult for two reasons: (1) range bound conditions prevail; and (2) when Debbie finally gets a trending day, all she can think about is what “was” for the past 8 days.

Now, the positive on today was that despite difficult conditions there was money to be made in specific stocks. Debbie had a plan for HIG if it trended. She took a hit trying to get in on the OR break but the hit was not a big one. Finally, she got the right price where risk could be managed and if follow through continued then the potential reward was great.

What happened next was, Debbie got spooked out of the position because HIG was moving contrary to the bias of the order flow in the SPY from the open and the vix was not really making one have confident in long positions. She took a loss.

HIG went on to move higher until about 11:45 ish. with a profit potential of somewhere around .70 cents. Debbie spent the rest of the time trying to get back in and continued to take small losses which added up. Once HIG was not working Debbie switched stocks and made the situation worse.

Debbie is upset with herself, as a trader, for two reasons: (1) she did not stick with her plan; (2) she fell into an old pattern of trying to make losses back and, as a result, lost perspective on what was happening in the markets and on the stock charts.

The result  of the two above problems are Debbie overtraded and Debbie took an unnessasary negative hit on the P/L today.

The only way to solve  reoccurring challenges, or any challenge to ones progress at all,  is to create a rule for the challenge and, more importantly, follow the rule in order to extinguish the problem.

Here is what I am doing tonight.

First, I will write these two problems out a a sheet of paper, crumble them up, throw them away, and they will be gone forever. Second, tonight will be spent revising my trading plan and adding a couple more rules.

Profitable Trading ALL!

Debbie, EdD, MAED, BSED

E-Trade (ETFC) was up 9% today as talk of a possible takeover candidate. These rumors have swirled and swirled again. Each and every time, there is no substance behind the rumor. This time it may be different!  Earlier in the day, E Trade reported October trading volumes for it’s customers, which came in a bit light. However, the latest report showed that they had reduced its bank-related deposit assets. A major reason for the decline in the stock over the last 2 years.

In addition, TD Ameritrade CEO Fred Tomczyk made some comments about a possible M & A activity in the future at a Reuters conference. He said that and acquisition was :the best use” for TD Ameritrade’s (AMTD) considerable cash position. There have been some talk that the buyout price could be as high as $4.

Technically the stock looks pretty good. Currently trading at $1.69, it traded as high as $2.07 in late September.  After the surge today, it closed above the 50 day EMA at $1.66.  Earlier in the month, it crossed back over the 200 EMA. Risk-Reward, we feel this is one to own!  It may take time to play out, but your downside is limited, your upside looks pretty good.