Home > Psychology > The Fear is Gone$

The Fear is Gone$

For weeks analysts have been saying we should pullback and this market needs to correct itself and for weeks they have been proven wrong. The pullbacks have been shallow and the short side of the market has done nothing but caused frustration( and money) if you have tried. Yes there have been moments where you may have had some profits but they would have quickly disappeared if you were not quick to cover or your expectations were too high.  But today, their  was no  sense of fear that we could sell off.  Instead , Buyers were more than eager to buy stock at the slightest of pullbacks. Stocks like $QCOM which has been weak and traded lower in the morning rallied strongly off its lows.

There were 354 new highs today, the most since October 2007. Proving that all were aboard this train. Institutions, retail investors, and day traders alike. Nobody wanted to be left at the station as they watch the door close in front of them. GREED!

However, If you were paying attention today, you would have noticed that the $VIX rose along side the strong market. The VIX will normally move lower in a rising market.   An interesting peice of data that may give a hint that a top is somewhat near.

When everybody starts to believe we will never go down, is exactly when we will.! The same way the markets reversed and traded off the lows back in March when many believed we were in the middle of the next Depression. I am not sure we are their just yet but it is certainly starting to feel different. The fear is gone!

When that happens, BE AWARE!

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  1. Robert C
    September 16, 2009 at 10:36 pm

    What you say may be true in regards to a top being near, but the fear being gone does not tell us that a top will occur tomorrow, next week, or next month. The fear may be absent for months before a top is put in. In keeping with techical analysis, the market has broken through the resistence, and now we must be patient and should be long, not short. There is a long term trend right now, and we shouldn’t fight it (except with quick, low allocated trades). I totally agree with you that we should BE AWARE… but the only position right now is to be long.

    Cheers…

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