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Falling Cliff

March 23, 2014 Leave a comment

Falling Cliff

1In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.
2The same was in the beginning with God.
3All things were made by him; and without him was not any thing made that was made.
4In him was life; and the life was the light of men.
5And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.
6There was a man sent from God, whose name was John.
7The same came for a witness, to bear witness of the Light, that all men through him might believe.
8He was not that Light, but was sent to bear witness of that Light.
9That was the true Light, which lighteth every man that cometh into the world.
10He was in the world, and the world was made by him, and the world knew him not.
11He came unto his own, and his own received him not.
12But as many as received him, to them gave he power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name:
13Which were born, not of blood, nor of the will of the flesh, nor of the will of man, but of God.
14And the Word was made flesh, and dwelt among us, (and we beheld his glory, the glory as of the only begotten of the Father,) full of grace and truth.
15John bare witness of him, and cried, saying, This was he of whom I spake, He that cometh after me is preferred before me: for he was before me.
16And of his fulness have all we received, and grace for grace.
17For the law was given by Moses, but grace and truth came by Jesus Christ.
18No man hath seen God at any time; the only begotten Son, which is in the bosom of the Father, he hath declared him.
19And this is the record of John, when the Jews sent priests and Levites from Jerusalem to ask him, Who art thou?
20And he confessed, and denied not; but confessed, I am not the Christ.
21And they asked him, What then? Art thou Elias? And he saith, I am not. Art thou that prophet? And he answered, No.
22Then said they unto him, Who art thou? that we may give an answer to them that sent us. What sayest thou of thyself?
23He said, I am the voice of one crying in the wilderness, Make straight the way of the Lord, as said the prophet Esaias.
24And they which were sent were of the Pharisees.
25And they asked him, and said unto him, Why baptizest thou then, if thou be not that Christ, nor Elias, neither that prophet?
26John answered them, saying, I baptize with water: but there standeth one among you, whom ye know not;
27He it is, who coming after me is preferred before me, whose shoe’s latchet I am not worthy to unloose.
28These things were done in Bethabara beyond Jordan, where John was baptizing.
29The next day John seeth Jesus coming unto him, and saith, Behold the Lamb of God, which taketh away the sin of the world.
30This is he of whom I said, After me cometh a man which is preferred before me: for he was before me.
31And I knew him not: but that he should be made manifest to Israel, therefore am I come baptizing with water.
32And John bare record, saying, I saw the Spirit descending from heaven like a dove, and it abode upon him.
33And I knew him not: but he that sent me to baptize with water, the same said unto me, Upon whom thou shalt see the Spirit descending, and remaining on him, the same is he which baptizeth with the Holy Ghost.
34And I saw, and bare record that this is the Son of God.
35Again the next day after John stood, and two of his disciples;
36And looking upon Jesus as he walked, he saith, Behold the Lamb of God!
37And the two disciples heard him speak, and they followed Jesus.
38Then Jesus turned, and saw them following, and saith unto them, What seek ye? They said unto him, Rabbi, (which is to say, being interpreted, Master,) where dwellest thou?

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Categories: Uncategorized

My Apartment

March 23, 2014 Leave a comment

My Apartment

1In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.
2The same was in the beginning with God.
3All things were made by him; and without him was not any thing made that was made.
4In him was life; and the life was the light of men.
5And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.
6There was a man sent from God, whose name was John.
7The same came for a witness, to bear witness of the Light, that all men through him might believe.
8He was not that Light, but was sent to bear witness of that Light.
9That was the true Light, which lighteth every man that cometh into the world.
10He was in the world, and the world was made by him, and the world knew him not.
11He came unto his own, and his own received him not.
12But as many as received him, to them gave he power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name:
13Which were born, not of blood, nor of the will of the flesh, nor of the will of man, but of God.
14And the Word was made flesh, and dwelt among us, (and we beheld his glory, the glory as of the only begotten of the Father,) full of grace and truth.
15John bare witness of him, and cried, saying, This was he of whom I spake, He that cometh after me is preferred before me: for he was before me.
16And of his fulness have all we received, and grace for grace.
17For the law was given by Moses, but grace and truth came by Jesus Christ.
18No man hath seen God at any time; the only begotten Son, which is in the bosom of the Father, he hath declared him.
19And this is the record of John, when the Jews sent priests and Levites from Jerusalem to ask him, Who art thou?
20And he confessed, and denied not; but confessed, I am not the Christ.
21And they asked him, What then? Art thou Elias? And he saith, I am not. Art thou that prophet? And he answered, No.
22Then said they unto him, Who art thou? that we may give an answer to them that sent us. What sayest thou of thyself?
23He said, I am the voice of one crying in the wilderness, Make straight the way of the Lord, as said the prophet Esaias.
24And they which were sent were of the Pharisees.
25And they asked him, and said unto him, Why baptizest thou then, if thou be not that Christ, nor Elias, neither that prophet?
26John answered them, saying, I baptize with water: but there standeth one among you, whom ye know not;
27He it is, who coming after me is preferred before me, whose shoe’s latchet I am not worthy to unloose.
28These things were done in Bethabara beyond Jordan, where John was baptizing.
29The next day John seeth Jesus coming unto him, and saith, Behold the Lamb of God, which taketh away the sin of the world.
30This is he of whom I said, After me cometh a man which is preferred before me: for he was before me.
31And I knew him not: but that he should be made manifest to Israel, therefore am I come baptizing with water.
32And John bare record, saying, I saw the Spirit descending from heaven like a dove, and it abode upon him.
33And I knew him not: but he that sent me to baptize with water, the same said unto me, Upon whom thou shalt see the Spirit descending, and remaining on him, the same is he which baptizeth with the Holy Ghost.
34And I saw, and bare record that this is the Son of God.
35Again the next day after John stood, and two of his disciples;
36And looking upon Jesus as he walked, he saith, Behold the Lamb of God!
37And the two disciples heard him speak, and they followed Jesus.
38Then Jesus turned, and saw them following, and saith unto them, What seek ye? They said unto him, Rabbi, (which is to say, being interpreted, Master,) where dwellest thou?

Categories: Uncategorized

Hanging out

March 23, 2014 Leave a comment

Hanging out

Avoiding Boulders while scouting ice climbing location

Categories: Uncategorized

Greece: One More Foot in the Grave.

April 22, 2010 Leave a comment


And the hits keep coming for Greece. Today, Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Greece’s sovereign credit rating from A2 to A3. They also placed it on review for further downgrades.
The Euro sank to 11 month lows breaking and then bouncing off an important support level. It made it as low as $1.3258 and in the last month has held this level. I will be watching for this level to break and hold to see a continuation of it’s down move and possibly a significant pullback in the US markets.

EUR/USD breifly broke support level after Moody's downgrade.

Eurostat, The European Union’s statistics agency, pushed up it’s estimates of Greece’s 2009 deficit to 13.6% of GDP from Greece’s earlier projection of 12.7%. Eurostat said they had concerns of Greece’s budget data.
Meanwhile in Athens, the streets are still filled with protesters and riots after police recently killed a 15 year old boy during the clashes. Window’s to shops are being broken and molotov cocktails being thrown as protestors express there outrage over the government proposed cuts of government jobs.
Now, I am all for a good protest. Having wages cut and welfare reform in an economy with 9% unemployment is definitely something to get the citizens roused. My question is, don’t they know that if these cuts aren’t made, there country will go even more bankrupt? So whatever wages they are fighting for will be moot, when the country no longer has money to pay them at all.
The truth is these measures should have been done a long time ago, before Greece got to the point of financial extinction. The proposed $45 billion bailout from the Eurozone members and the IMF is supposed to help them from going under. However, they are going to have to balance the budget at some point, so I’m not sure why they keep destroying their own city.
Even if they can get this $45 billion bailout, CreditSights (a independent fixed income research company), said the bailout may not be enough to save Greece from its debt problems.
Today’s market seemed to shrug off Greece’s woes and after a period of selling in the morning, reversed. As I write this, the SPY just turned positive on the day.

When Doing Bad is Good for Business.

April 20, 2010 Leave a comment


I’m reminded of the scene in the movie “Fight Club,” when Edward Norton is speaking to a woman on a plane and tells her about the formula his automotive company uses to figure out if they should recall a product.
“A new car built by my company leaves somewhere travelling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up….The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall?”

“Take the number of vehicles in the field (A), multiply it by the probable rate of failure (b), multiply the result by the average out of court settlement (C.) A x B x C=XX.  If XX is less then the cost of a recall, then we don’t do one.”
“Are there a lot of these kind of accidents,” The passenger sitting next to him asks. He replies “You wouldn’t believe.”


The recent fine of $16.4 million levied against Toyota brings to mind this formula. The largest in US history, but nowhere near the cost of a recall.
In an earnings call on Feb. 4, Toyota estimated it had paid $1.12 billion on warranty expenses and $812 million on lost sales for a total of $2 billion. A heavy price to pay and quite an incentive to keep things quiet.
Now presently they have 41 class action suits against them and 13 individual lawsuits. Without the Governments recall, would the class action suits against them even have been brought? Then you are left with just individual suits claiming deaths or injuries caused by unwanted acceleration.
So as Toyota tried to slide under the radar, so as not to do the recall, their only punishment is a fine that is less then 1% of what would happen if they came right and out and told people.


Now getting to the SEC allegations of Goldman Sachs. The SEC alleges they knowingly put together these $42billion CDO’s and sold them, knowing they were going to fail.
Now if the SEC wins the case against the best lawyers money can buy, the resulting fine is going to be what $10million? Maybe the $15 million they made in fee’s off the deal. Compare that to the revenue of $51 billion from last year. Or even to the $16.2 billion in bonuses given out this year, not to mention the extra $5 billion they are planning on doling out for three months work.
The US public and agencies assigned to protect the little guy carry far too small a stick to handle the greed of big business. I mean we can’t even get finance reform bill off the ground to at least prevent the last economic collapse from happening again!

I think  we need to have penalties that will give companies enough of an incentive to re-think their dubious deeds.  Whether that is larger fines or imprisonment.

I mean if Goldman was fined $16.2 billion, the payout of this years bonuses,  they may actually care.

“The Canary in the Coal Mine.”

April 15, 2010 Leave a comment


As in previous blogs, I have been keeping track of the progression of the Greece bailout. The US markets have been going up as the Euro is strong against the Dollar. Right now not even a spike in jobless claims can keep the US markets from going up, but the collapse of the Euro is still on the table. And since the Fed seems to be content keeping the rates in place until probably after September elections, the only catalyst seems to be the Greece bailout.
Where it stands now is the Euro-zone leaders have pledged $45 billion package of loans to Greece to keep it from the brink. However, this Tuesday at a meeting of the American Enterprise Institute, the fiscal outlook in Europe was identified as the leading downside risk to global economic recovery.
Nouriel Roubini referred to Greek Crisis as the “canary in the coal mine.” Saying that the fall of Greece could lead to the fall of Spain, Portugal and Ireland. And with this would be collapse of the Euro.
Desmond Lachman, a former IMF official and pictured above, said that in the near term the USD/EUR will likely move towards parity. He compared the Greece bailout to that of Bear Stearns by the Fed. Seven months after they bailed out Bear Stearns, the passed on bailing the Lehman Brothers rescue. Thus triggering the beginning of the global recession.
Can the Euro have that dramatic of an effect on us? That remains to be seen and can be a point of debate, but I certainly think it’s important to keep an eye on this as it recently has had a direct correlation with our markets.  A stronger dollar would expectedly take the wind out of the sails of the US markets.

EUR-USD grinding ever lower as dollar stregthens.

$Making it While it’s Obvious

April 13, 2010 Leave a comment

National Oilwell Varco, Inc ($NOV-oil/natural gas equipment company) opened the day down .19c from the previous day’s close.  A brief history, the day before I had been trading it long after a pullback from a break of an important resistance spot. It never bounced and I ended up losing money on it that day as the SPY sold off from the 120 level. So today when it gapped down I was ready for the short and to get my money back!

I waited for the first 15 minute candle to form, which had a range of .66c! Over half the average true range of the stock. I shorted on a pullback in the next 15 minute candle. My entry signal was a swing high on the five. I entered at .38c and covered at .12c as the stock was pausing and the market failed to make new lows.

This trade, unfortunately was my last profitable trade in the stock. After making the first trade, I said ” I just got my money back,” to my boss sitting next to me. And perhaps this why I did not make another profitable trade in this stock for the rest of the day. It was personal and I didn’t want to lose. This not a way to make big money, because you miss opportunities.

So the rest of the blog is about what I wanted to do and should have done and easily made another .50c, without much sweat. Just wanted to give full disclosure on that.

5 minute chart of NOV on April 13th.

I tweeted about going short NOV below 42 and waited for it to sell off. I saw a level from the previous day hourly at .96c, that I thought might have some significance. Apparently not as the stock broke the figure and shot to .94c. I hesitated as it bounced, wondering if it might be a fake out and afraid it might just bounce right in my face. I should have hit the bid the moment it broke.

As you can see from the chart it did nothing but go down. I entered a few breakouts along the way, but just felt that hiding around the corner was the support level. So I exited most of them prematurely. The closest support I saw was .66c, which was the low from a few days prior. It pushed right through that level and found support at .52c.

Hindsight of course is always 20/20. The original short I could have held for .88c, without ever being out of the money. I am such a “lock in the profits” personality that I have to make sure I stay aggressive while the situation is obvious. So if I get out, I must reenter.

The market has really not followed through to the downside and all selling pressure has been met with buying. However, I have to trade the charts and the setups, because when they do work out I need to be making money. I don’t get paid just to watch stocks do what I think they will do!

This has definitely been a challenge that I have been working on lately. Making sure I get involved in the right set ups, yet still finding the balance so I am not over trading. That’s all for now!