The Trader Talk Think Tank

Announcing an unprecedented opportunity to learn…

We are visiting Chicago and Philadelphia!

Keystone Trading Concepts presents the

Trader Talk Think Tank

Each month in our NYC office Keystone Trading hosts and moderates a two hour networking event that empowers our attendees to:

· Discover how to assess market conditions like a professional for the upcoming quarter

· Gain insight into which sectors have the lowest risk opportunities

· Discuss ideas you have previously traded and new ideas you are considering

· Review of previous Game Plans and how Keystone’s proprietary traders and students executed those ideas with real money

· Get a glimpse into the Keystone Trading Plan and how we plan to attack the markets in the coming week

Additional topics on the schedule include:

· The most common and (most costly) stock trading mistake and how to avoid it

· How to eliminate the anxiety caused by reading your brokerage statement

· The difference between a risk only trade versus a trade with a high probability to earn money

· How to qualify to trade firm capital for Keystone (remotely)

On Wednesday October 27th at 7:00pm EDT Keystone Trading Concepts will be hosting a preview webinar for the next Trader Talk Think Tank to be held in Chicago at the Sofitel hotel on Monday, November 8th 2010.

During the Preview Webinar we will be discussing the top 5 reasons why attending the Chicago

Trader Talk Think Tank on November 8th will stimulate new ideas for you, learn how a professional trading firm allocates capital to scenarios and most likely develop some great new friendships.

Think Tank attendance has no fee with pre-registration however we normally have standing room only so there is a $75 fee at the door for those without an entrance ticket.

We strongly encourage registering with a friend or spouse!

Once again the preview webinar for the Chicago Think Tank is this Wednesday , October 27th at 7:00pm EDT, (6pm in Chicago) .

Please call 212-594-8900 to Reserve your spot Today!

Earnings Season Has Begun

As usual Alcoa(AA) has kicked off the earnings season.  Alcoa beat the street’s forecast for earnings per share for the second quarter with .13 per share against a .10 forecast.  They reported stronger volumes and, favorable currency and energy costs that more than offset lower aluminum prices. 

The statement that caught my eye was the raising of the consumption forecast for the full year from 10% to 12%.  I take the raising of the forecast as an expectation that the economy will show strength towards the end of the year.  This should be good news for many of the commodity stocks that we trade.  Also if the economy does show increased strength, it could lead to an upward trending market for the rest of the year. 

Today I will be watching many of the commodity stocks that we trade as they are showing some pre-market strength.  They have been beaten down recently so I will keep a close eye if buyers come into this sector on the long side.  Stocks like Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF), US Steel(X), Freeport-McMoran(FCX), and Newmont Mining(NEM) will be the stocks I will be watching to see if this sector is in play today.  Best of luck today with your trading. 

Kyle

JP Morgan Gives the Banks a Direction

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) today before the bell beat earnings estimates and reported a quarterly profit of $3.3 billion or 74 cents a share, compared with $2.1 billion or 40 cents a share, a year earlier.  Being the first bank to report many people were looking for JPM to set the tone for what to expect from the other major banks, when they report later in the earnings season. 

Coming into the day today your game plan had to include a few of the financials.  As a firm we have been watching Wells Fargo(WFC), Bank of America(BAC), Suntrust Banks Inc(STI), and Morgan Stanley(MS).  These banks were already showing strength on the charts since around February and this earnings report on JPM had to get you excited going into the day.  Now I don’t know what these banks are going to report and I don’t care.  The only thing I care about is the price action on these banks as their earnings approach. 

By looking at today’s price action in many of the banks it seems most people are expecting the other banks to outperform as well with their earnings.  It seemed today institutions were establishing positions in the banking sector today across the board.  As individual traders this is the type of price action we are looking for.  When the financial sector is in play this can make your month. 

Many institutions are looking at the other banks for confirmation that the recession is over and that the economy is improving.  Watch earnings in BAC on Friday and Citi on Monday to see if this trend continues or if they disappoint look for a big sell-off that will buck the trend.  Good luck in your trading. 

Kyle

making confident day trading decisions

Can you make a persuasive argument for your trades?

A good portion of my mentoring is assessing whether or not a trader is improving at making good decisions. You would think that the first thing I would look at is a traders P&L. I can understand why someone may expect that to be my top priority but as a veteran trader I can tell you that P&L alone does not always tell the story.

This article was inspired by two incidents that occurred this week. One particular day last week was a very busy trading day. If you know anything about myself and Erik we will be the first ones to tell anyone within shouting distance if it is a tough day to trade or if volume is very light to do nothing or at the very least cut down your share size.

Well on this day it was a very good day to trade. We had a trader who was new to the office listening to me throughout the morning telling everyone to get busy. It was one of those days to “belly up to the bar” and get involved. It was a morning to make some good money. After lunch Erik called him into the back and told him you can’t be passive on a day like today, you have to sit on the edge of your seat and trade like you expect to make money.

What was his response? He sent an email after the close telling us he wanted to trade from home. Why would he do this, we were mentoring him and promising to help him improve? Believe it or not this is not the first time we have experienced this. He didn’t want anyone to critique his trading. Now mind you this is NOT an experienced trader who is earning a consistent living and he is trading OUR money. His first day trading from home I reviewed his trades for the day and his decisions were horrible.

I emailed him and asked him to send me his journal for the day so I can se what his thought process was for the days trades. It is 10 days later and I still have not heard from him. He can’t back up his decisions. He can’t make an argument. If you aren’t willing to learn, you will never improve.

The other situation happens when I bring new traders into the back room for small group mentoring. We mentor everyone on the trading floor and online but a trader can make themselves dissappear by being quiet. When I bring them into “the SHED” I force them to talk me through all of their possible trades they want to make.

When you are in The Shed, there is nowhere to hide. You must make a case to me like you are on trial. I force you to get good at making good decisions. It amazes me how often Erik and I hear “I was hoping, I don’t know why, I wasn’t paying attention to that, I didn’t see that support.”

Picture in your mind the next day you are trading. Visualize yourself in a room full of 100 traders. Now picture that you are required call out every trade you are considering to the whole room for judgement. How many of your current decisions would you call out proudly and loudly!?

Use this visualization technique to improve your decision making ability and I will guarantee your P&L will become very consistent.

Take my advice, don’t hide behind your monitor and try to figure it out on your own…..ask a question!

Pete

Newsletter Volume 1 Issue 4

   Keystone Trading Group Newsletter  

Volume 1 Issue 4

Short Term Stock Trading Education 

In this issue:

·         Identifying Significant Reference Points

·         Order Entry Techniques

  Identifying Significant Reference Points 

When trading stock for a living, you obviously want to know what you are going to do next in a given price action scenario. The key to maximizing profits and minimizing risk lies in being able to anticipate where other traders are probably going to take action.

Using charts in your day trading, your objective is to locate areas where you believe traders will initiate a position or exit a position. Once you have identified those areas, you MUST begin to form if-then scenarios about how other stock traders will react if the expectations they had about the trade are met, or just as important, if they are not met.

What I mean by this is simple, while you are trading, you should always be prepared for any scenario, meaning what needs to happen for me to initiate a trade or exit a trade. Most traders are looking at the same intra day information, once you understand fully what you will do under any circumstance, you will have a much better idea how the majority will react.

If you are in an uptrend and get long, what does price action and volume need to look like in order for you to no longer to want to be in the trade any more? Now here is something I hear very often from traders who are disciplined, “I am getting stop loss to death. I am correct on most of my trades and make no money.”

How do you solve this dilemma? The first technique is asking yourself two simple but very important questions. Did the circumstances for my trade scenario change or is this move just noise? How do you know the difference? The answer is simple, pay attention to the tape, the volume printing in time and sales. Did significant volume hit the tape that would tell you large traders have an urgency to buy or sell shares? Or did price move without many shares trading hands? If price moved but few shares traded, your original idea is still probably valid! Stick with the trade.

     

The second method to earning “what you should” when your call on the trade scenario is correct is utilizing time tested order entry techniques.

 Order Entry Techniques 

Understanding how to manage share size is crucial to your success as a trader. Money management is how much capital you will allocate to a particular trade; risk management is how you will manage that capital. Risk scenarios will include stop los parameters and share size allocated to the trade based on stop loss points and risk per trade as defined by money management.

Too many traders make the mistake of trading the same share size all the time, regardless of conditions or risk points. I often hear “My share lot is 1,000 shares per trade.” Wow this is a huge mistake. To be a consistent stock trader you need a predefined plan for how you will acquire the shares for a trade. Simply put, if you want to get to 1,000 shares for a trade scenario, how are you going to get them?

We recommend two strategies. One is building a position in a strong trend the second is entering a small portion of your intended total position and adding to it only when the position has moved in your favor.

In order to build a position you must have confidence in the strength of the trend. If your goal for example is to have 1,000 shares of a stock, you would buy the 1,000 shares in pieces as the stock pulls back or pauses in the trend. You may do it in two or three pieces, for example 400, 300, 300 for a 1,000 share total for the position.

I can hear what you are thinking, why is he telling me to average down? Averaging down means you wanted 1,000 shares, got 1,000 shares, the trade moves against you and you go get another 1,000 shares. That is like marrying the same woman you got divorced from, getting more of what is not working. To build a position like this you will need to identify a window where you would expect the pullback to stop, we teach in our Equity Trader 101 course to use the 20SMA as the area we anticipate the pull back to stop. Stop loss will be based on the full size position.

              

The second method is price confirmation. Using this method you will enter one third to half of your total position. When and only when the position moves in your favor you will add to it. Using this method it is common to scratch a few trades, take a few small losses and small profits until you finally feel comfortable that you have a good head start on the trade in your intended direction.

Obviously re entry is a big part of this method. Think carefully about what this method is allowing you to you to do, you are wrong on the fewest shares and correct on the most shares. It is terrific money and risk management. It will prevent you from being in a position where you will need to be perfect on your entry, you will gain valuable information based on how “easy” or difficult it was to get filled.

If you would like some help with any of the topics covered in this newsletter, please feel free to send me an email and we can work on it together. prenzulli@keystonetradinggroup.com

If you are trading remote and not taking advantage of the leverage and competitive fee structure available from Keystone Trading Group, please send an email to info@keystonetradinggroup.comto inquire about rates or extra intra day buying power. Please be sure to put in the headline the subject for the email so that it can be directed to the proper department.

Once again thank you for deciding to receive our educational newsletter on your path to becoming a complete trader.

http://keystonetradinggroup.com/